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Abstract Tornado risk, as determined by the occurrence of atmospheric conditions that support tornado incidence, has exhibited robust spatial trends in the United States Southern Plains and Mid-South during recent decades. The consequences of these risk changes have not been fully explored, especially in conjunction with growing societal vulnerability. Herein, we assess how changes in risk and vulnerability over the last 40 years have collectively and individually altered tornado-housing impact potential. Results indicate that escalating vulnerability and exposure have outweighed the effects of spatially changing risk. However, the combination of increasing risk and exposure has led to a threefold increase in Mid-South housing exposure since 1980. Though Southern Plains tornado risk has decreased since 1980, amplifying exposure has led to more than a 50% increase in mean annual tornado-housing impact potential across the region. Stakeholders should use these findings to develop more holistic mitigation and resilience-building strategies that consider a dynamically changing tornado disaster landscape. 

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a substantial source of precipitation in the eastern U.S. and may be sensitive to regional climatic change. We use a suite of convection-permitting climate simulations to examine possible changes in MCS precipitation. Specifically, annual and regional totals of MCS and non-MCS precipitation generated during a retrospective simulation are compared to end-of-21st-century simulations based on intermediate and extreme climate change scenarios. Both scenarios produce more MCS precipitation and less non-MCS precipitation, thus significantly increasing the proportion of precipitation associated with MCSs across the U.S.